Once again, this month confirms a trend that has now characterized recent winter seasons in Italy: few bright spots and many shadows concerning the snow water resource. Winter should be the season when snow accumulates, reaching its peak between late February and mid-March, according to historical data, and forming a crucial water reserve for spring and summer. However, the reality emerging from current data tells a different story.
What happens when seasons no longer follow past patterns? When temperatures rise, precipitation becomes unpredictable, and snow turns into an increasingly fleeting resource? CIMA Research Foundation’s fourth monthly update on Italy’s snow water resource provides a close-up view of a season that is leaving significant marks on the country’s water balance.
A season marked by uncertainty and change
Italy’s snow water balance remains in deficit, with a national Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) shortfall of -57% compared to historical averages. This figure reflects an ongoing trend observed for several years, indicating a progressive reduction in snow availability. Premature snowmelt is directly influenced by rising temperatures, with immediate consequences for water availability in the following months.
“These data do not represent an isolated anomaly but rather a persistent signal in recent seasons. This year once again highlights recurring anomalies in our climate, a phenomenon manifesting through decreased snowfall and an acceleration of melt processes,” explains Francesco Avanzi, researcher at CIMA Research Foundation.
Looking back at how this season developed, the start was uncertain: an unusually dry November delayed the formation of the snowpack, depriving the mountains of the solid base typically required for snow accumulation in the following months. December attempted to rebalance the situation with some precipitation, but repeated warm spells significantly hindered accumulation. Then, in the first two months of the year, conditions shifted again. January brought heavy snowfall to parts of the Alps, raising hopes for a partial recovery. However, February did not sustain these expectations: above-average temperatures accelerated snowmelt, particularly at mid and low elevations.
In the Alps, this pattern was particularly evident in the Po Basin, which holds about half of Italy’s snow water resource. After a temporary recovery phase in early January, rising temperatures triggered accelerated melting, pushing the deficit back to critical levels. The Adige Basin also recorded a significant snow cover reduction, although at higher altitudes, snow has shown greater resilience due to persistently lower temperatures, albeit still above seasonal averages.
The situation in the Apennines is even more concerning. After some snowfall in December, the following months saw a substantial lack of significant precipitation. The Tiber Basin is currently at a 95% deficit, marking the worst balance in the past thirteen years.
Data and trends: the role of science in Water Resource Management
Water from snowmelt is a fundamental component of Italy’s hydrological balance. However, its distribution is shifting: melting is occurring earlier, often during periods when water demand is still low, complicating resource management. Future challenges will not only concern the amount of accumulated snow but also the timing of its availability for the hydrological system.
Understanding these phenomena cannot be limited to a local analysis but must be placed in a global context. Tools like the World Drought Atlas provide an essential perspective for interpreting drought dynamics and water availability. This global atlas integrates data, maps, and case studies to outline risks associated with drought and the declining snow water resource on a worldwide scale. The ability to transform this data into operational tools is critical for ensuring effective management strategies at both national and international levels.
Managing snow and drought requires a multidisciplinary approach, connecting science, policy, and society. To explore these topics and discuss future strategies, Fondazione CIMA is organizing the webinar “Navigating Drought: The World Drought Atlas“, taking place on March 28, 2025. During the event, the latest data on the interactions between drought and water resources will be presented, with particular attention to implications for the agricultural, energy, and inland water transport sectors. Register here.
Future prospects
What can we expect in the coming months? According to seasonal forecasts from ECMWF1, spring is expected to be warmer than average across the entire country. This significantly increases the likelihood of rapid snowmelt, directly impacting river flow rates and water availability for agriculture and public supply. Precipitation, however, is projected to be around or slightly above normal levels, at least in central and northern Italy. Still, recent months have shown that these forecasts should be interpreted with caution.
The winter season is coming to an end, and the window for additional snowfall is narrowing. In recent days, some fresh snow has fallen in the northwest, raising the question of whether the coming weeks might bring a final surge capable of significantly mitigating the deficit.
- The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is concerned with providing operational forecasts that aim to show how the weather is most likely to evolve. To this end, the Centre produces a set of forecasts. Individually, they are comprehensive descriptions of weather evolution. Taken together, they indicate the probability of a range of future weather scenarios. See https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts . ↩︎